2005-03-02

What is happening at this time?

While the Bush administration claims victory in the trip by Bush and Rice to Europe, in reality it was a defeat for the US government.

Bush and company were hoping to twist the arm of the Europeans to put pressure on Iran. They were not successful. In fact with respect to Russia they failed miserably since they had tried to convince the Russian government to refrain from signing the contract to provide the Iranian government with the fuel for the nuclear energy plant. Right after the return of Bush, the Iranians and the Russians signed the contract.

Although Bush and company say that they and the Europeans came to a new agreement, which is that Iran must not develop nuclear weapons, this is a restatement of the existing facts about Iran. By signing the NPT, Iran has agreed not to develop nuclear weapons, and the Europeans, who are also signatories, have always held that no country should develop new nuclear weapons. This has been the basis of Russia's agreement to provide nuclear energy technology to Iran.

In fact, it is clear that Bush and company have been forced to reduce their rhetoric after their visit to Europe. Right after their return, it was reported that Bush is talking of offering some "carrot" to Iran as an incentive to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons.

This shows that although Bush said all alternatives are on the table (which definitely is the long term plan of the neoconservatives), for the time being they are retreating and regrouping.

This issue also falls in line with the decision to interrupt Rice's visit and have her cancel her Middle East visits.

Although the Administration claims it was because of human rights violations in Egypt, that is not the truth, because before planning the visit they were aware of human rights violations both in Egypt and in Saudi Arabia. However, after their defeat in Europe and the demonstrations and oppositions of the people in Europe, it became clear to them that it was no time for Rice to visit the Middle East.

I was recently visiting Cairo and the support of the people in Cairo for Iran and its revolution was palpable and clearly expressed. This is important in the face of the fact that Egypt is a majority Sunni Arab county, and one which is theoretically a "friend of the US".

Bush and Rice learned from their European trip that, at a time when they are threatening Iran, which is loved and supported by the masses of people in Moslem countries, a visit by Rice will be devastating for the US.

Another event which has made the US government retreat momentarily is the situation in Palestine. As we know, US/Iran and Israel/Palestine relations are intertwined. The Iranian government has been opposed to the "Road Map to Peace" promoted by the US government. And the US government has referred to this as one of the reasons that Iran is supporting "terrorism".

The Bush administration was hoping that with the death of Arafat (which they gleefully celebrated), and offering carrots to Abbas, inducing him to turn the guns of the Palestinian Authority security forces against the Palestinian resisters, they could present "a Peace" to the Israeli People. If they were successful in that, it is easier for Sharon to offer the bitter pill of going to war with Iran to the Israeli people.

However, we have seen that recently there was another attack inside Israel.

Again, while they are retreating a bit from their threats against Iran, they try to keep the issue alive by resurrecting the old story of the Pakistani nuclear scientist.

The other game they are playing is to increase their pressure against Syria while they are regrouping about Iran. So, as soon as the Lebanese ex-premier is assassinated, the US claims it is done by Syria without one trace of evidence. While the Lebanese government is trying to investigate the assassination, the US whips up anti-Syria accusations and tries its hand at destabilizing another country in the Middle East. Syria is attacked for all the problems of Lebanon as though it were not the Israelis who attacked Lebanon, bombed Beirut in the 80's, and occupied south Lebanon, and it as though it were not the fascist elements which intensified the civil war, giving rise to the popularity of the Lebanon Hezbollah.

So, now, the US shows a face of threat and agression toward the people of Lebanon, as it has already been doing toward the people of Iraq, Iran, and Syria.

So this setback for Bush and Co. buys Iran a little bit more time. Scott Ritter has said that the Pentagon plan for attacking Iran has been June of this year; let's hope it does not come to pass.